Fearmongering locally

Chicago had 122 murders during meterological summer this year, the lowest number since 1965. And yet, most of the candidates for mayor can't help themselves:

Despite historically low levels of violent crime in Chicago this year, candidates trying to replace Mayor Brandon Johnson are sweeping aside the numbers in favor of anecdotes and are depicting the city as reeling in a “crisis” of gun violence and lawlessness.

Overall violent crime hit its lowest level last year in more than four decades. City data shows the downward trend has continued this year.

FBI-classified “index” crimes at CTA locations — trains, buses, stops and all other properties — are down 29% this year through Aug. 23, according to police figures. Seven categories, ranging from thefts to shootings, are all down. Two other categories increased: There were 24 sexual assaults and four arson incidents.

Businessman Willie Wilson’s campaign website says crimes, including smash-and-grab robberies and car thefts, “have shaken the foundation of our city.”

Chicago robberies last year were down more than 86% from their 1991 peak, according to annual Chicago police reports. More recent police data shows robberies falling sharply since a small surge in 2022 and 2023 that experts tied to the pandemic.

Perhaps this is why the stereotype of big cities having lots of crime persists: because making people afraid gets votes. But we had 90,000 crimes in 1991 and only 22,000 last year, which was the lowest number recorded in my lifetime. Last year's murder rate of 15.3 per 100,000 puts Chicago 27th on the list of cities by murder rate¹, significantly below Birmingham, Ala. (58.85) and just a bit ahead of Syracuse (15.15). You want high crime rates? Go to red cities, my friend.

So it really annoys me that Chicago politicians, who know better, are sounding like Republicans about crime. Is homicide a problem in Chicago? Yes, particularly on the South Side. But take a look at the 1980s and 1990s and ask whether it might be heading in the right direction.

We should be absolutely crowing about the declining crime rate in Chicago, and celebrating a 61-year low in murders. We should also burn Thomas Midgley Jr in effigy every year to remind ourselves that our love of cars has killed untold millions of people, many through the violent crime that leaded gasoline may have caused².