The Daily Parker

Today is the 78th anniversary of Kristallnacht, the Nazis' rampage through Germany smashing the windows of Jewish-owned businesses and killing about 100 Jews.

It's also the first day in the countdown to the 115th Congress on January 3rd and the swearing-in of the 45th President on January 20th.

Having studied authoritarian, nativist takeovers in other countries, most notably Germany in the early 1930s, the U.S. in 1828, and Hungary in the last few years, I have some idea what we may be in for, and what we're not.

Our standing in the world will take a hit. How big depends on how stupidly Trump actually behaves. Given his record, and his lack of coherent policies, who knows what he'll do. But the Republican Congress? We know what they'll do pretty well.

It's not just the ACA, the Supreme Court, immigration, taxation, giveaways to private interests; all that's pretty bad. It's also the dozens of Federal District Court judges they've refused to confirm. Arts funding. Action on climate change. The regulations they'll write. The tiny, tiny ways they'll dig in like intestinal parasites to undo the Obama years and hold back progress for another generation.

I'm beyond disappointed with my country today. I'm ashamed. But I'm going to observe the first six months of 2017 intently to decide if we're America 1828, America 1856, Rome 120 BCE, or Germany 1933. Because I think we're one of those things now.

North Carolina's polls are about to close. So it's now time to open my live blog.

18:30 CST: As the first polls close, we've got Indiana and Kentucky for Trump, Vermont for Clinton. No surprises there. Other states "too close to call."

18:33: First (minor) disappointment: The Times calls Ohio Senate for Portman.

18:37: Interesting. The Times is calling West Virginia for Trump, as expected; but Talking Points Memo calls it for Clinton and Ohio for Strickland. Oh, my, tonight will be a l19ong won.

18:55: Times reporting Strickland has conceded in Ohio. So far, no change in the Senate.

19:04: Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, Massachusetts to Clinton. Tiny states with lots of electoral votes. Times has the race now at 44 Clinton, 31 Trump. Illinois still not called, though our polls just closed.

19:15: Times calling Florida Senate for Rubio, but painting the state blue on the Presidential side. It's looking like there's a lot of vote-splitting today.

19:25: First Senate pick-up: Crain's and other outlets calling Illinois U.S. Senate for Duckworth.

19:44: Times is calling Indiana U.S. Senate for incumbent Republican Todd Young.

20:02: Everybody calls Illinois for Clinton, and the entire 96th meridian for Trump. Also New York and Rhode Island for Clinton. Times has us at 68-69 (because they haven't officially called some of them), MSNBC has us at 104-107.

20:12: Let's recall 2012:

Meanwhile, TPM reports "We don't know how this will play out. But the big story right now in Florida is that Trump is really outperforming Romney in the Republican counties." But remember, urban counties take a lot longer to report. Either way, it's going to be a long night.

20:17: Crain's reports that the (stupid, stupid, stupid) Safe Roads Amendment will probably pass in Illinois. It puts highway money in a lockbox instead of allowing the legislature to spend it on anything else. I don't think this is a good idea. We'll see.

20:25: Times editorial board member Brent Staples reports that 7 in 10 Trump voters long for the world portrayed in 1950s television shows. Unfortunately, this America never existed.

20:37: It may be too early to say this definitively, but I think Gary Johnson voters in swing states are probably closet Trump voters who want to have a bullshit excuse. Or they're crashingly stupid. But I expect, tomorrow morning, a lot of people will be saying, "Well don't blame me, I voted my conscience for Gary Johnson." Uh huh.

20:49: And now, market futures are in a tumble as Trump looks closer to winning.

20:56: TPM and the Times are both talking about polling failures. Bad failures. The Times now shows Trump with a 59% chance of winning. Maggie Halberman: "If Clinton wins, it will be an eked-out victory, meaning that Trump will remain on the scene for potentially a long time. ... But I think it’s going to be hard to grasp how fractured this country is going to be."

21:27: The Times is calling North Carolina U.S. Senate for incumbent Republican Richard Burr. So far we're 1 up. Great. This is scary.

21:56: The Times calls Ohio for Trump, a GOP pick-up. The Detroit Free Press calls Michigan for Clinton.

22:33: Florida to Trump, according to the Times. Gary Johnson got about twice the number of votes than the difference between Trump and Clinton. But my Johnson-supporting friends claim that they voted their consciences, that they opposed Trump, and that third parties are viable in the U.S. Yeah, good work guys. You're either lying, stupid, or delusional.

23:41: Yeah, I'm still up. And California and Massachusetts have just legalized pot. Which is great, but it's still against Federal law, and without an Obama or Clinton administration to stay enforcement of those laws, does it matter?

23:43: Ah, nostalgia. Remember 2012?

23:49: I just realized, it's coming up on 7am in most of Europe now. Bonjour, mes amis! Look who we're giving the nuclear codes to!

00:12: Paul Krugman: "It really does now look like President Trump, and markets are plunging. When might we expect them to recover? ... [A] first-pass answer is never."

00:36: Republican incumbent Pat Toomey re-elected in Pennsylvania. Missouri and Louisiana look grim. So it's looking a lot like we've lost the whole game. This is my country.

01:28: We've lost the Senate. We've failed to take the House. And though a lot of ballots remain to be counted, it looks like we've lost the executive as well. As I posted on Facebook a while ago, it looks like the Republican policies of cutting education funding for 50 years have paid dividends.

I find it no small irony that everyone I voted for this morning won, at all levels. (I include the Democratic electors who will vote for Hillary Clinton in mid-December.) And this is a very, very close election, decided by exactly the people who are already a minority in this country and who are fading away. Clearly they're not going without a fight, even if it destroys everything else around them.

We are Rome. Still the Republic, but Rome nonetheless. Millions of people who voted for Donald Trump tonight will expect their lives to improve, with America returning to the imagined past of "Leave It to Beaver." What happens when they're disappointed? Which Visigoths do they invite to sack Washington?

I'm going to sleep. When I wake up, I wonder if I'll still know my country.

Here are the states I'm watching closely tonight, and the times their polls close. The biggest ones are all around 7pm Chicago time, just over 4½ hours from now.

18:30 CST/19:30 EST

North Carolina, 15 votes, Republican Senate seat: Hillary Clinton* is polling dead-even, and so is Democratic Senate candidate Deborah Ross. It's not a make-or-break state for the presidency but it would be a huge pick-up in the Senate if Ross beats incumbent Republican Richard Burr.

19:00 CST/20:00 EST

Illinois, 22 votes, Republican Senate seat: My home state is all but certainly going for Clinton, and has a very good chance of giving us a Senate pick-up if Democrat Tammy Duckworth* beats incumbent Republican Mark Kirk. Expect the networks to call our results right when polls close.

New Hampshire, 4 votes, Republican Senate seat: This tiny New England state may signal how other older, whiter states will go later in the evening. And it's not nearly as blue in recent forecasts as it was in 2012 or 2008. I'm also looking for Democrat Maggie Hassan to take the Senate seat from Republican Kelly Ayotte. They're polling dead-even in a must-win race for Democrats.

Pennsylvania, 20 votes, Republican Senate seat: Right now it's "leans Clinton" in optimistic forecasts, "toss-up" in some others, with Democrat Katie McGinty* barely edging out incumbent Republican Pat Toomey.

Florida, 29 votes, Republican Senate seat: Another state where Clinton and Trump are polling dead even, I don't expect this race to get called until late tonight. But in the Senate, it looks like incumbent Republican Mark Rubio will defeat challenger Pat Murphy after all.

Missouri, 10 votes, Republican Senate seat: Trump's going to win the state; I accept that. But Democratic Senate challenger Jason Kander has pulled ahead of incumbent Republican Roy Blunt in late polling. That would be a very satisfying pick-up.

19:00 MST/20:00 CST/21:00 EST

Michigan, 16 votes: Clinton is barely edging Trump right now in late polling. This one could go into extra innings. (No Senate race.)

Wisconsin, 10 votes, Republican Senate seat: Both Clinton and Democratic former Senator (and current Senate challenger) Russ Feingold* are polling ahead, but it's still way closer than I want. This one could also go late.

Colorado, 9 votes: Incumbent Democratic Senator Michael Bennet is comfortably ahead of Republican challenger Darryl Glenn in the polls, so I'm not worried about that. I am interested to see how the toss-up resolves itself in the presidential race.

19:00 PST/21:00 CST

Nevada, 6 votes, open Senate seat (currently Democratic): Who will succeed retiring Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid? Democrat Catherine Masto is polling just a smidge ahead of Republican Joe Heck. This is an important Democratic hold. It would be a shame if New York's Chuck Shumer becomes Majority Leader just as the previous leader's seat changes to the other party.

20:00 PST/22:00 CST

California, 53 votes, open Senate seat (currently Democratic): Since both candidates running for Senate in California are Democrats, I am confident that we'll hold Barbara Boxer's seat. And Clinton is polling so far ahead in the Golden State that, again, I don't anticipate anything dramatic happening. But it's always nice, in any presidential election, to see my candidate's numbers go up by 53 at 10pm. If Clinton already has 199 votes in called states by this point, the triple whammy of California, Oregon (7 votes), and Washington (12 votes) means it's all over.

Will we know who'll be the next president by 10pm? I hope so. But I'm prepared to wait up all night to find out.

* Disclosure: I have contributed financially to these candidates.

Before discussing the most important sports story in North America since...well, since the States were United, let me highlight some of the political and professional stories percolating:

• The Economist has endorsed Hillary Clinton for President. "This choice is not hard."
• Meanwhile, the High Court in London ruled today that Parliament must actually vote to trigger Brexit, which gives MPs another crack at the piñata and perhaps a way out. No telling when Teresa May plans to schedule this vote as the UK Supreme Court still has to hear the case. In any event, the government now can't trigger Article 50 for the indefinite future.
• TPM's electoral scoreboard now stands at Clinton 269, Trump 221, with New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Florida now toss-ups. Nate Silver points out that his estimates have Clinton at about the same point Obama was in 2012, giving Clinton 293 to Trump's 244. Deeply Trivial explains more about Silver's statistics.
• Meanwhile, if it seems like the FBI is in full-on Clinton-hating mode, it's because they are. The Guardian's Spencer Ackerman reports that the bureau is "Trumplandia" and totally off the rails. Great. TPM (where Ackerman worked previously) analyzes the journalism making the FBI's political interference worse.
• University of Chicago law professor Geoffrey Stone is appalled by elected Republicans threatening a scorched-earth rear-guard assault against Clinton's policies. Brian Beutler agrees it could be a long two years until the 2018 mid-terms in which absolutely nothing gets done.

Stay tuned for the real story of the day.

In between meetings and client visits, I've been paging through New York Magazine's article from last week, "The Final Days of the Trump Campaign:"

Perhaps the most surprising thing to ponder at this late stage in the election is just how close the race could have been had he taken nearly any of the advice offered to him by advisers. “This thing was doable if we did it the right way,” one adviser told me.

When Paul Manafort, a veteran Republican lobbyist and operative cut from Establishment cloth — he’d worked on Gerald Ford’s, George H.W. Bush’s, and Bob Dole’s presidential campaigns — came onboard to serve as campaign chairman at the beginning of the general-election season, he suggested a strategy that was the exact opposite of the one Trump pursued in the primaries. He wanted Trump to lower his profile, which would force the media to focus on ­Clinton — a flawed opponent with historic unfavorable ratings who couldn’t erase the stain of scandal, real or invented. “The best thing we can do is to have you move into a cave for the next four months,” Manafort told Trump during a meeting. “If you’re not on the campaign trail, the focus is on her, and we win. Whoever the focus is on will lose.”

But Trump is Trump, after all, and his entire campaign is based on him being better than "so-called 'experts.'" Kind of like the Brexit folks. I just hope Clinton's actual experts know how to beat this dangerous charlatan.

Still busy. So busy.

• Some intrepid Tribune reporters went to every bar in Wrigleyville so you don't have to.
• Meanwhile, Crain's went to a bunch of breweries and wineries in Southwestern Michigan so you can also.
• Do you want to hear Trump's self-immolation at last night's Alfred E Smith dinner?
• Better yet, just go back and re-watch last night's Cubs game. They're one away from their first pennant since 1945. This could happen...

And now I have to set up a development environment.

Recaps of the debate comprise just a few of the things I haven't had time to read today:

• Who hated Trump's caginess on whether he'd accept the election results if he lost? Everyone: The Economist, The New Republic, The National Review, Talking Points Memo, everyone. 
• Trump's debate performance is being compared to book reports by kids who haven't read the book.
• Pilot Patrick Smith says Trump's airline wasn't that bad for customers, but it never made a profit either.
• Meanwhile, the Cubs beat the Dogders 10-2, which means the series will be decided at Wrigley on Saturday or Sunday.
• Looks like Chicago will have a warm-ish November and a normal-ish winter.
• One of the world's largest data centers, here in the South Loop area of Chicago, will soon be a lot bigger.
• Funny statistic: almost all airport noise complaints come from a handful of people—like the one person in Maryland who complained about Washington Dulles 1,024 times last year.
• Finally, "Hamilton," which I saw Sunday, got a rave from the Tribune.

Back to my meetings.

Sigh. Here we go again.

21:14 EDT: Fifteen minutes on the 2nd Amendment, argued by someone who has never read the thing. And now, abortion, which apparently will be overturned "automatically" if he appoints pro-life judges.

21:19: No, Donald, you can't rip the baby out of the womb in the 9th month. I mean, FFS.

21:22: It took fully 15 minutes for him to descend into a stream-of-consciousness. That's pretty good self-control. (Did he just say "bad hombres?")

21:24: This, from my cousin.

21:26: No score after 4. Arguably more useful for the typical Chicagoan than this debate.

21:29: You know, in any other election, it would be really weird for a major candidate to say that the Russians have committed espionage against her campaign.

21:32: This is a long way from Lincoln-Douglas, isn't it?

21:36: "You're not going to find a quote from me." Oh, dearie dearie dear.

21:40: She's going to double my taxes? I'm absolutely certain that is mathematically impossible for me, but if she doubled your taxes it would still be...what, zero?

21:49: "Excuse me. My turn."

21:54: So...he's projecting the incitement to violence that he has perpetrated, onto her?

21:55: Apparently some people have objected to the Ewoks comment at 21:24. This only proves the Ewok Line.

22:01: Trump is calling the Clinton Foundation a "criminal enterprise." Half of all people being treated for HIV-AIDS in the world are getting it from the Foundation. Criminally, I suppose.

22:04: "There's no way to know if he's telling the truth" because he hasn't released his tax returns. "Undocumented immigrants in America are paying more in income tax than a billionaire."

22:06: "Will you absolutely accept the results of this election?" "I will look at it at the time."

22:16: "Google 'Donald Trump Iraq.'"

22:21: Trump keeps referring to "the Great Migration." Is he suggesting Clinton is responsible for African-Americans moving from the rural southern U.S. to northern cities?

22:25: Oh, FFS, Matthews. The national debt isn't in itself an issue. Why is this so hard for people? Read Krugman on IS = LM.

22:30: And the last question of this debate cycle is a right-wing hobby horse. Yes, there is bias in the media, and it's pro-Republican.

22:32: "Such a nasty woman." Projection much?

22:34: Final answer of the 2016 debates. Not a moment too soon.

22:37: That is the last time I will ever voluntarily listen to Donald Trump speak in my life. I know he'll be in the news for the next few weeks, but damn, I can't even.

James Fallows says something that I've been thinking for a while:

To a first order of approximation, everything that Donald Trump has said about his opponents should be understood as projection, in the psychological sense of the term. That is, any defect Trump has complained about in his primary or general-election opponents, is more likely to seem an obvious flaw in himself.

Trump called Ted Cruz “Lyin’ Ted,” and Cruz has his moments. But no other politician of any party approaches Trump’s level of nonstop falsehood on matters large and small. Trump says that Hillary Clinton is secretive and scheming, and she too has her moments. But no other modern politician has matched Trump’s secrecy about his business operations or his taxes. He is hyper-attentive to other people’s weight gains, but is quite pudgy himself.

With that buildup, here is the latest what the hell? moment from the Trump campaign:  his suggestion today in New Hampshire that the candidates take a drug test before the third and final presidential debate.

I have no grounds for suggesting that Trump himself needs to be tested for drugs. But if anyone were to suggest that, wild claims like this would be part of the case.

Maybe all that sniffing at the first two debates had something to it...

Maine governor Paul LePage, who is certifiably insane, thinks we need authoritarian rule in the U.S. to "re-establish the rule of law," even though authoritarian rule is, by definition, its opposite.

Fortunately, we probably can breathe easier that Donald Trump's self-immolation continues apace, though Josh Marshall and Jeet Heer both raise alarms about what might happen November 9th, particularly given Trump's weeks-long ranting about how the election is rigged against him.

After 50 years of assaulting our institutions, the Republican Party have nominated someone who wants to overthrow those institutions altogether. He's not alone. I just hope the country doesn't come apart completely before I can get someplace safe from it.